Another year, another set of Oscar predictions. This year's Best Picture race is as wide-open as it's been in a very long time, so I'm very worried about how I'll fare. Either way, it should be a fun ride.
Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
Will Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
Should Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
I don't love the recent Apes movies, but there's no doubt that the visual effects are absolutely top notch. I think the motion capture work is showy enough to catch the Oscar voters' eye, whereas something like Blade Runner feels a little more subtle.
Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Baby Driver
Aside from Baby Driver and Dunkirk, this is a pretty weak category. None of the others have editing that I felt stood out. There's a chance the voters my go for the hokey editing of I, Tonya just because it's very in your face, but I think Dunkirk has a pretty good shot at taking this. My personal favorite, however, is Baby Driver. It's not my favorite Edgar Wright film from a comedy or story perspective, but the editing in his films is always incredible.
Best Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul
Will Win: Phantom Thread
Should Win: Phantom Thread
This is the category that I feel most confident about. Not only are the costumes incredible in Phantom Thread, it's also a movie about fashion, so it gets an opportunity to put the costumes at the forefront. The Shape of Water and Beauty and the Beast have an outside shot, but I'm pretty sure it will go to Phantom Thread.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder
Will Win: Darkest Hour
Should Win: Darkest Hour
Don't underestimate the power of the fat suit.
Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049, Roger Deakins
Darkest Hour, Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk, Hoyte van Hotema
Mudbound, Rachel Morrison
The Shape of Water, Dan Laustsen
Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
At this point it feels foolish to bet on Roger Deakins to win Best Cinematography. He's been nominated for the award and never has one. But this year finally feels like the year, not only because his work in Blade Runner 2049 might be his best yet, but also because the industry loves to give legacy awards. Still, it's never a sure thing with Deakins, so Dan Laustsen might pull it off for his cinematography in The Shape of Water.
Best Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
One thing you can always count on with a Guillermo del Toro film is gorgeous production design, and in The Shape of Water it's the best thing about the film. I suspect Oscar voters will be taken by it, because it will likely remind them of their younger days (Get it? Oscar voters are old). I'd personally go with Blade Runner 2049. Sure, it's only building off of the groundwork laid by the original film, but I think it adds enough to the universe's aesthetic to merit recognition.
Best Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Will Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Baby Driver
My favorite in this category is Baby Driver which had the harder task of mixing its persistent soundtrack with the rhythm of the rest of its diagetic sounds, but I think the voters will go with Dunkirk. War movies tend to do well in the sound categories.
Best Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Will Win: Dunkirk
Should Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Another one for Dunkirk, I think, partially because Oscar voters don't know the difference between sound editing and sound mixing. I'll go with The Last Jedi as my favorite, if only for that incredible sound effect of Kylo's lightsaber pulsating by his face in the final battle.
Best Original Song
"Mighty River," Mudbound
"Mystery of Love," Call Me By Your Name
"Remember Me," Coco
"Stand Up for Something," Marshall
"This Is Me," The Greatest Showman
Will Win: "Remember Me," Coco
Should Win: "Mystery of Love", Call Me By Your Name
I'm not confident that "Remember Me" will win, but I'm going with it. I'd love it if "Mystery of Love" wins though, as Sufjan Stevens is one of my favorite musicians.
Best Original Score
Dunkirk, Hans Zimmer
Phantom Thread, Jonny Greenwood
The Shape of Water, Alexandre Desplat
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, John Williams
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Carter Burwell
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Phantom Thread
Alexandre Desplat's Shape of Water score is going to win, which is fine, because it's very lovely. But have you heard Jonny Greenwood's score for Phantom Thread? It might be his best collaboration with Paul Thomas Anderson yet.
Best Animated Short Film
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Sapce
Revolting
Will Win: Dear Basketball
Should Win: N/A
The experts are all going with Dear Basketball which I suspect is simply because it has the biggest name associated with it in Kobe Bryant. I've only seen Lou in this list of nominees, so sure, I'll go with Kobe too.
Best Live Action Short Film
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O'Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All of Us
Will Win: DeKalb Elementary
Should Win: N/A
Another one where I haven't seen any of the nominees so I'll just go with the oddsmakers. The short categories are always so scary! They can ruin a ballot!
Best Documentary -- Short Subject
Edith+Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop
Will Win: Edith+Eddie
Should Win: N/A
All I know is that alot of the older white voters seem to be angry about Traffic Stop, so that one probably won't win. I'll go with Edith+Eddie, the one that's about actual old people.
Best Documentary -- Feature
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
Will Win: Faces Places
Should Win: N/A
I was tempted to go with Icarus, which seems like the kind of crowd-pleaser that might go well with voters, but I ultimately decided on Faces Places, which will allow them to give a legacy award to the great Agnes Varda.
Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
The Insult (Lebanon)
Loveless (Russia)
On Body and Soul (Hungary)
The Square (Sweden)
Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
Should Win: N/A
Last year, voters went with the political pick in The Salesman, and I think they'll do the same this year with A Fantastic Woman, which feels the most of the moment. Out of the nominees I've only seen The Square, but I'm excited to check out A Fantastic Woman.
Best Animated Feature Film
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Will Win: Coco
Should Win: Coco
This is Coco's award, but it would be very funny if the meme-friendly Boss Baby won. Keep an eye on The Breadwinner as a dark horse though -- Tom Moore always makes lovely, beautifully crafted films.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name, James Ivory
The Disaster Artist, Scott Neustadster and Michael H. Weber
Logan; Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green
Molly's Game, Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound, Virgil Williams
Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
Should Win: Molly's Game
I can't believe I'm choosing Molly's Game as my personal favorite, but despite all of its bad Sorkin-isms, it's a massively entertaining script. Still, I think elder statesman James Ivory will win for his Call Me By Your Name screenplay.
Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick, Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; Martin McDonagh
Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri;
Should Win: Get Out
This one is a tough one. The screenplay category tends to go to "cooler" picks, so I was tempted to follow prevailing wisdom and predict Get Out to win. But I think Three Billboards might scrape this out. My two personal favorites are Get Out and Lady Bird, which are neck and neck, but while I like Lady Bird more overall, Get Out's script feels so fresh and exciting. Also, I'm very happy that The Big Sick got nominated here.
Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney; I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Will Win: Allison Janney
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf
I think Lesley Manville is one of the greatest actors alive, but Laurie Metcalf's performance in Lady Bird is so good, that she's my favorite in the category. Ultimately, though, I think voters will go for Allison Janney's more showy performance. I don't love the performance, but good for her!
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will Win: Sam Rockwell
Should Win: Richard Jenkins
There aren't really any performances here that I have a strong attachment to. Sam Rockwell almost feels certain to win, which will be fine by me. Ultimately, I think I prefer Richard Jenkins' soulful performance in The Shape of Water.
Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
Will Win: Frances McDormand
Should Win: Sally Hawkins
I like Three Billboards a great deal, but I'm not as over the moon about Frances McDormand's performance as I'm guessing Oscar voters will be. I'd personally go with Sally Hawkins who conveys so much emotional depth without using any words.
Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Will Win: Gary Oldman
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Gary Oldman seems like a lock to win this one. I love the guy as an actor, but his Churchill performance didn't do much for me. I appreciate a good swan song, so I'd love for Daniel Day-Lewis to win for his supposed final performance. But I would be just as happy with Kaluuya or Chalamet winning.
Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
The Best Director/Best Picture split seems to be more and more common these days, and predict that it will happen again. I don't quite think The Shape of Water has enough juice to win Best Picture, but voters will admire the craft enough to give Best Director to del Toro, although I'd prefer almost anybody else in this category over him.
Best Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win: Phantom Thread
I've seen every nominee and this is how I would rank them from favorite to least favorite: Phantom Thread, Lady Bird, Three Billboards, Get Out, Dunkirk, The Post, Call Me By Your Name, The Shape of Water, Darkest Hour. Unfortunately Phantom Thread has no shot of winning. I think it's a two horse race between Three Billboards and Shape of Water. Honestly, it's a little baffling that Shape of Water has this much of a shot. It's got alot of Classic Hollywood love in its fabric, but it's so darn weird that I can't believe more older viewers aren't turned off by it. Still, I'm counting on some people being turned off, so I think Three Billboards pulling it off. I desperately don't want this to happen, due to the thinkpiece deluge that I know will follow, but it's looking like it might.
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