2020 Academy Award predictions

Every year I feel more and more out of touch with the temperature of the Oscar race, so these predictions could be a disaster.  I think it will be a pretty big night for 1917, but I could be wrong.  For the sake of my ballot I'm hoping for a predictable Academy Awards, but for the sake of chaos I want a ton of surprises.

Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
1917
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: The Lion King

Normally I'd think the visual effects in 1917 wouldn't be the kind of thing the Oscar voters would notice, but I'm guessing they love the film enough that it will carry over into the technical stuff too.  Any of these would be solid winners, but I think The Lion King is the best in the category.  Absolutely dreadful movie, but the CGI is incredible.

Best Film Editing

Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Parasite

Will Win: Ford v Ferrari

Should Win: Parasite

Right now with the oddsmakers it's pretty much neck and neck between Ford v Ferrari and Parasite.  While I think the latter is the better edited film -- part of the joy of the movie is its pacing and rhythm -- I have a hunch that the Academy as a whole isn't as into it as some might think.  Plus, Ford v Ferrari has the more obvious editing and that tends to win out in this category.

Best Costume Design

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Will Win: Little Women

Should Win: Little Women

A part of me wants to fight against the tendency to award period pieces set in the 1800s and early 1900s, but Little Women really did have the best costuming in this category.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Bombshell
Joker
Judy
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil
1917

Will Win: Bombshell

Should Win: Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 

I don't have a strong opinion on this category at all, so take my Maleficent preference with a grain of salt.  The voters will most definitely be impressed by how much Charlize Theron looked like Megyn Kelly in Bombshell.

Best Cinematography

The Irishman, Rodrigo Prieto
Joker, Lawrence Sher
The Lighthouse, Jarin Blaschke
1917, Roger Deakins
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Robert Richardson

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: 1917

I can't believe we live in a world where Roger Deakins went from "always nominated but never wins" to almost certain to be winning his second award in three years.  Good for him, he's a king.

Best Production Design

The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Should Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

I love the production design in Hollywood and Parasite both so much, but I think ultimately the ancient Oscar voters will go for the former for reminding them of L.A. when they grew up in it.

Best Sound Mixing

Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

I'm still not entirely convinced that most Academy members know the difference between editing and mixing.  1917 will get love in both because people keep throwing around the phrase "technical achievement" when describing the film and these are technical awards after all.  But I really dug the mixing in Hollywood, particularly in the Cliff driving scenes.

Best Sound Editing

Ford v Ferrari
Joker
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: Ford v Ferrari

Again, this one goes to 1917 but my personal pick goes to Ford v Ferrari because I love a good vroom vroom.

Best Original Song

"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away," Toy Story 4

"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again," Rocketman

"I'm Standing With You," Breakthrough

"Into the Unknown," Frozen II

"Stand Up," Harriet

Will Win: "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again," Rocketman

Should Win: "Stand Up," Harriet

In listening to all of these songs, I was surprised by just how much I loved "Stand Up."  Harriet seems like not my cup of tea, but that song is so rousing and soulful.  I like Randy Newman's song in Toy Story 4 too, though it doesn't really deviate much from the usual thing he does for the series.  "I'm Standing With You" is as soggy as Breakthrough looks, and "Into the Unknown" simply isn't "Let It Go."  I like "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again," so I won't mind it winning.

Best Original Score

Joker, Hildur Guonadottir

Little Women, Alexandre Desplat

Marriage Story, Randy Newman

1917, Thomas Newman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, John Williams

Will Win: Joker

Should Win: Little Women

I couldn't even tell you what the Joker score sounded like before I listened to it for this post.  It's not a score I care for at all but it seems to have been winning at other award ceremonies so I think it will keep its momentum here.  Marriage Story and Little Women were in a heated race for my favorite, but I slightly prefer the jauntiness of the latter's score.

Best Animated Short Film

Dcera (Daughter)
Hair Love
Kitbull
Memorable
Sister

Will Win: Hair Love

Should Win: N/A

I usually have seen at least one of the shorts in this category but not this year, though I'm interested in Kitbull and Hair Love.  I've consulted the tea leaves and I think Hair Love's got this one.

Best Live Action Short Film

Brotherhood
Nefta Football Club
The Neighbors' Window
Saria
A Sister

Will Win: The Neighbors' Window

Should Win: N/A

The oddsmakers have this between Brotherhood and The Neighbors' Window.  I'm going to go with the voters choosing the latter because it's American.  This is a bit of a risk because it's got a fluffier premise and the live action short and documentary short categories tend to go to more serious fare, but it's a risk I'm willing to take.

Best Documentary -- Short Subject

In the Absence
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
Life Overtakes Me
St. Louis Superman
Walk Run Cha-Cha

Will Win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)

Should Win: N/A

A pure shot in the dark!

Best Documentary -- Feature

American Factory
The Cave
The Edge of Democracy
For Sama
Honeyland

Will Win: American Factory

Should Win: N/A

Again, I usually have seen one or two of these nominees but I was slacking last year.  I'm very interested in Honeyland and I think it can pull off the win, but I don't know if it will have the power to beat out a documentary produced by the Obamas.

Best International Feature Film

Corpus Christi (Poland)

Honeyland (North Macedonia)

Les Miserables (France)

Pain and Glory (Spain)

Parasite (South Korea)

Will Win: Parasite

Should Win: Parasite

I have no doubt in my mind that Parasite will win this one.  Historically for the "Should Win," I put N/A if I've seen less than three nominees (I've only seen Parasite and Pain and Glory) but Parasite is so good I can't imagine liking any of the other nominees more.

Best Animated Feature Film

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

Will Win: Toy Story 4

Should Win: Toy Story 4

Pixar has been a less sure bet these days than it used to be, but the Toy Story series is big and beloved enough to overcome that obstacle.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Irishman, Steven Zaillian

Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi

Joker; Todd Phillips and Scott Silver

Little Women, Greta Gerwig

The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten

Will Win: Jojo Rabbit

Should Win: Little Women

I'm already barfing at the thought of the cloying, toothless Jojo Rabbit script winning, especially when Greta Gerwig's deft Little Women adaptation is standing right there next to it.

Best Original Screenplay

Knives Out, Rian Johnson
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach

1917, Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino

Parasite, Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won

Will Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Should Win: Parasite

I like four of these scripts a great deal and would be fine with any of them winning.  My favorite is Parasite and right now it's the favorite with the oddmakers, but the Academy really loves Tarantino when it comes to this category.

Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell

Laura Dern, Marriage Story

Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

Florence Pugh, Little Women

Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Will Win: Laura Dern

Should Win: Laura Dern

Thankfully for prediction's sake, the acting categories all seem to be locked up in the bag.  So don't expect anyone other than Dern taking the statue home.

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes

Al Pacino, The Irishman

Joe Pesci, The Irishman

Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Will Win: Brad Pitt

Should Win: Brad Pitt

Hanks, Pacino, and Pesci all gave terrific performances, but the easygoing charm of Pitt's performance makes it the best in the category.  And that wasn't even Pitt's best performance of 2019!  (That belonged to Ad Astra.)  What a year for the guy -- he deserves the award.

Best Actress

Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

Charlize Theron, Bombshell

Renee Zellweger, Judy

Will Win: Renee Zellweger

Should Win: Saoirse Ronan

Judy feels like The Wife of this year, where it seems like everyone decided the central performance was award-worthy and then the momentum carried it, despite not alot of people having seen the film.  I hope one day Saoirse Ronan can win, because she's incredible in Little Women and everything else.

Best Actor

Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Adam Driver, Marriage Story

Joaquin Phoeniz, Joker

Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix

Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio

Yeah, Phoenix is an absolute lock for this despite the fact that it's only a mid-tier performance from him (yeah I said it!!!).

Best Director

Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Todd Phillips, Joker

Sam Mendes, 1917

Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

Will Win: Sam Mendes

Should Win: Bong Joon-ho

It's wild to think that Sam Mendes might be a two-time Best Director winner after tonight but that's definitely where it looks like things are going.  Though this is a pie-in-the sky-fantasy, it would be great if Bong Joon-ho managed to pull off the win.  Anyone would be a worthy winner aside from Todd Phillips.  Let's take a second to be outraged and baffled by him getting nominated over somebody like Greta Gerwig or Marielle Heller.

Best Picture

Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: Parasite

My order of preference for the nominees are: 1. Parasite, 2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 3. The Irishman, 4. Little Women, 5. Marriage Story, 6. Ford v Ferrari, 7. 1917, 8. Joker, 9. Jojo Rabbit.  Like I said, I think this will be a big night for 1917, so look for it to take this one home.  I'd be okay with anything as long as Joker or Jojo Rabbit don't win.