My 20 Favorite Television Shows of 2019

Loyal fans have been waiting for a whole year to get to this day.  Not to see my actual list, but to hear me chronicle my crippling addiction to television and see whether or not I was able to limit myself to following less than 100 shows this year.  Well I've got some bad news for you: if we're counting the shows I watched every airing episode of this year, that number reached 102.  I know, I really thought I was going to meet my goal in 2019.  And I was so close!  I know I said this last year, but I really am quitting more shows and not starting more altogether, they just keep making more of them every year.  Those numbers simply can't be beat.

One thing I've noticed with my list this year is that it feels a little different than previous years, and I can't tell if that's due to a change in my taste or a change in the trend of what gets made.  But I will say this year there's less Very Serious Drama For Very Serious People (your Mad Mens, your Americans) and more stuff, especially in the top 10, that might make you say "huh"?  The idea that great TV comes in all shapes and sizes is a mantra I've repeated alot over the years, and we would all do well to remember that as the landscape transforms a bit in the next decade.

My 20 Favorite Films of 2019

What is cinema?  Never mind...I'll leave that question to Martin Scorsese.

Every year in my TV list, I talk about trying to watch less TV.  With film, I'm trying to do the opposite.  And I did pretty well with that last year, watching a total of 104 new releases, way more than I ever had before.  That would be tough to top, but I at least wanted to stay somewhere close, as opposed to the 75 I ended up hitting.  Part of that is because this year marked the debut of the Criterion Channel streaming service and I chose to spend more time watching MGM musicals from the 1950s and Akira Kurosawa films instead of whatever new algorithmically generated movie Netflix released onto their system.  But another part might be that it was a weaker year overall.  It was very top-heavy in 2019, with many masters and soon-to-be masters putting out excellent work, but it just didn't seem to have the overall depth that 2018 did.  Even some of those aforementioned masters could barely get their movies shown in theaters.

Okay, maybe Marty was right.

The rules: As long as a film got an official United States release in 2019, it was eligible for placement on this list.  This is an important thing to remember, since some of the films that appear in my top 20 premiered at film festivals in 2018, but didn't get released in theaters until this year.  And in the case where a film got no theatrical release, then a VOD debut in 2019 will make it eligible.

My 20 Favorite Albums of 2019

These music lists are always the hardest to write an intro for, because there are so many genres and narratives, it's hard to sum it all up into one cohesive statement.  2019, at least for me, was a continuation of trends already known to be true, particularly in the rise of poptimism and the diminishing of traditional indie rock.  This year, rap and pop music take up a whole 50% of my top 20 list, which is higher than it's been since I've started making lists.  Unfortunately, that still doesn't mean there is any Billie Eilish on here.  I apologize to the zero teens reading this.

The rules: Everything is the same as usual.  The window of eligibility for this list is anything released between January 1, 2019 and now.  This list can include albums, mixtapes, EPs, and anything in between.  I'm praying that nothing substantial comes out in the twilight hours of the year.  You never know with surprise releases these days...

50 Songs I Liked in 2019

On December 29th, I'll be starting off my end of the year lists with my 20 favorite albums of 2019.  But there's so much great music out there that my album post will only cover a very tiny portion of the stuff that's worth listening to.  So this list is an additional rundown, one that highlights songs from albums that won't be appearing on the top 20 in a few days.  I'm including songs from my five honorable mention albums, so if you see something on here from an album you love, who knows, maybe that album is ranked somewhere between 21 and 25 for me!  Even this doesn't fully cover the quality that the year had to offer, but it's a good representation of what I generally liked this year.

A 2000 word review of Taylor Swift's "Lover" to heal our fractured nation

In this age where we have constant access to artists and know so much about them, it's hard for reviews of albums from extremely popular musicians to not feel like a referendum on everything surrounding them.  But it seems especially hard when you have an artist like Taylor Swift.  Part of that is because she's one of the most famous people on Earth, so she has the inflated swirl of publicity and reportage that comes with that.  It's also that she's someone who puts so much of herself and her life into her music.  A Taylor Swift album and the discourse around a Taylor Swift album begin to feel like one in the same.

And the stars of discourse were not aligned for her leading up to Lover.  Despite Reputation being a pretty good album when all was said and done, and despite it having an astronomically lucrative tour, the record was seen as a bit of a failure.  On top of that, a fact that hadn't been the case for a long time was now true: Taylor Swift just isn't the biggest pop star in America anymore.  In her absence, Ariana Grande scooped up the Millennial demographic and Billie Eilish conquered the Gen Z crowd.  And it seems like reckoning with that reality caused her to scramble and make some fumbles.

The first of those fumbles was everything about initial single "ME!"  Its release was coupled with a garish music video whose vibe was completely out of step with what people are looking for these days.  Then there's her recent to decision to end her notorious silence on politics by finally coming out against Trump and in support of LGBT issues.  Obviously, it's a net positive if she inspires some young people to become political, and it's better to be late to this stuff than to never come to it at all, but it's not unreasonable for people to think it's a calculated sales move.  Adding to the feeling of calculation was the release cycle of the follow-up single, "You Need to Calm Down," in which a song that only makes one or two passing references to gay rights got a video that features a smorgasbord of queer celebrities.  It all just seemed like a flurry of weird marketing moves that got the album off on the wrong foot.

That's a shame too, because despite all of the extra-textual elements surrounding the album being rancid, Lover is unequivocally great.  Well, except no amount of initial perception could change the fact that "ME!" is a total whiff.  Its generic, Target commercial melody and instrumentation is bad enough, but the fact that it inflicts Brendon Urie on our ears when so many of us are still trying to bleach his voice from the memories of our adolescence is beyond the pale.  "You Need to Calm Down," however, is a monster pop song that sounds like it should've been a smash, and one has to wonder if people would feel more positive about it were they not annoyed with the video and Swift in general.

In interviews, she has spoken about how the aesthetics of this album are a direct reaction to Reputation's look and sound.  Soft pastels fill the art of this release, a contrast to the hard black and white of her previous record.  There's no coincidence in the fact that this album's title, Lover, is a direct inverse of her former favorite phrase "hater" either.  She was a fighter on the last album.  This time around, not so much.  Lover sloughs off the angry edges of Reputation -- instead of fixating on people who've wronged her, she's forgetting they even existed on the album's opening track.  Her only remotely Reputation-esque song is "The Man," which contemplates the gendered double standards that have plagued people's perception of her persona, but even that feels withering and even-keeled compared to the last album's agitated tracks.  Meanwhile, the rest of the album is full of slick bops that are blissed out and love-drunk.

Though maybe that's just as much of a mask as the Disney villain cosplay of Reputation.  Take "Soon You'll Get Better," which feels like the secret core of the album, as a counterpoint.  It's a devastating and sparse song about her mom's cancer -- originally diagnosed in 2015 and re-diagnosed earlier this year -- that reminds the listener that not everything in Swift's life has been a cause for celebration.  A line like "I'll paint the kitchen neon, I'll brighten up the sky / I know I'll never get it, there's not a day that I won't try" even indicates that the positive vibe on the surface of Lover is just an attempt to cope with a lingering sense of sadness.  The album is suffused with little bits of anxiety, like on "Cornelia Street" where remembrances of the time when her current love first bloomed also features the line "And baby I'm so terrified of if you ever walk away."  Things like that bubble up all over the album.  It serves to lend this otherwise happy and content album a sense of stakes, the fact that Swift is grappling with the idea that everything good in her life could suddenly all go away.

She may not have the world-conquering singing voice of an Ariana Grande or the command of mood and sound of a Billie Eilish, but one aspect where Taylor Swift continues to be unparalleled in the pop landscape is the level of sheer craft in her songs.  This album reminds you of how much of a structure wonk she is, with every song feeling like a perfectly constructed set of verses, choruses, and bridges that all fit into the tight little melodic frameworks she spins out like it's nothing.  Never is that more apparent than early favorite "Paper Rings," a song that all the algorithms in the world couldn't make more mathematically catchy.  It's a sock hop gem with undeniable melodies in its chorus and verses, that somehow manages to find another gear in its bridge.

It's in the lyrics however, where Swift truly shines and sets herself apart from her peers.  Her music has always felt like the work of someone who's a tinkerer at heart.  Every phrase is so precise and detail-heavy, written and rewritten to be the most lean and rich version of a sentiment possible.  Over her last two albums it has felt like she was moving away from that evocative style in her transition to unambiguous pop, but Lover is a return to her roots on the lyrical front.  Every line is so vivid and gorgeous, like her use of "holy orange bottles" to describe her mom's prescription pills on "Soon You'll Get Better."  She's still got that fascinating way of phrasing things: "I think he knows / His footprints on the sidewalk / Lead to where I can't stop / Go there every night."  And she paints memories with so much clarity that they unfold like real-time, present-tense moments: "I'm drunk in the back of the car / And I cried like a baby coming home from the bar / Said, 'I'm fine,' but it wasn't true / I don't wanna keep secrets just to keep you / And I snuck in through the garden gate / Every night that summer just to seal my fate."

Part of the joy of a new album from an established artist is getting another opportunity to see them play in their sandbox like that.  Her wild bridges, the breathy sighs she uses when she sings some of her lines, her last chorus adlibs -- almost all of the Taylor Swift staples appear on Lover.  And the album features some her best phrase turning ever.  There's "What doesn't kill me makes me want you more" on "Cruel Summer."  There's "My heart's been borrowed and yours has been blue / All's well that ends well to end up with you" on "Lover."  There's "We're so sad, we paint the town blue / Voted most likely to run away with you" on "Miss Americana and the Heartbreak Prince."  For people who really love this stuff, it's a major treat.

The left turns end up providing even more joy.  Album highlight "False God" is this low-tempo, midnight simmer that wouldn't feel out of place on an adult contemporary station, and I couldn't help but feel during the Joni Mitchell-esque stagger of words in the pre-chorus and those light saxophone stabs in the chorus the excitement of having never heard her do something like this before.  "It's Nice to Have a Friend" is another highlight in that vein.  Sounding a little like the "Cuckoo" song from Moonrise Kingdom, it blends the soft sounds of a children's choir with steel drums, and contains a bugle breakdown.  Seeing that written out feels like looking at a menu where an item has a disparate blend of ingredients, but hearing it is like having those ingredients come together for an incredible flavor.

All of the tabloid aspects of Taylor Swift's life have never been a point of interest for me, but it feels almost impossible to review this album without mentioning Joe Alwyn.  After all, he's the titular character in "London Boy," a fun and wondrously catchy song that humorless people don't seem to like much.  Alwyn is the longest relationship she's had since entering the spotlight and it's hard not to notice how much happier and healthier it feels via her songs.  On tracks like "False God" and "Afterglow," there's an entirely different approach to weathering the storm of hard times and conflict than we've ever heard from her.  There's a real sense of partnership to these songs, a desire to work things out and attain stability.  It's a far cry from the volatile approach to love we heard back in the days of "The Way I Loved You," and as someone who's listened to her music for over a decade, I can't help but be endeared by that.

So much life is inside of Lover.  There's still something very intoxicating and hopeful about the way her mind and her pen works.  It's full of "magical things" and "dazzling hazes."  She channels that energy into every type of Taylor Swift song you could want on the album's 18 tracks, and it's easy to get caught not only in the its tide of joy and excitement, but also its splashes of melancholy.

In the weeks that led up to the release of this record, I made myself comfortable with the fact that Taylor Swift's peak was over.  The creative arc of a musician is alot like an athlete's output.  Her self-titled debut was the promising rookie season, while Fearless through 1989 was her hall of fame period of dominance.  In that case, Reputation appeared to be the start of her "Lebron James on the Los Angeles Lakers" period: still good, but you can see the cracks in front of you and the best moments in the rearview.  And that was nothing to be ashamed of -- any musician would kill to have an apex as long and high as hers, and merely good Taylor Swift is still better than almost any other popular music.  But Lover is a turn-back-the-clock moment for her, a glorious accomplishment that stands right up there with her greatest work.  It's rare for a pop star's seventh album to be this thrilling, this invigorating and engaging.  The times may be passing her by, but she remains as talented as ever.

The Society cured my aversion to Netflix

I've been stricken with a very serious disease.  It's a little something called Netflix Fatigue.  Over the last few years, Netflix has become the one-stop shop for many people's viewing habits, especially those who are in my age range.  I constantly come across people who only watch Netflix, or immediately respond to a TV/film recommendation with "Is it on Netflix?"  And no offense to those people who have succumb to the convenience of Netflix -- okay, some offense: broaden your horizons, folks! -- but the way that one streaming service dictates the conversation about what we watch troubles me.  It's not just that, Netflix puts out so much content.  I'm not a binge-watcher, so the fact that they drop a new show every week with the full season available is too overwhelming to me.  If anything, something being on Netflix now makes me less likely to watch it.

If you're suffering from Netflix Fatigue like I am, it would be easy to miss out on something like The Society.  I almost did too, were it not for a pitch of the show on The Ringer's The Watch podcast that made it seem like it would be particularly up my alley.  For those who aren't in the know, here's the setup: in a well-off Connecticut town called West Ham, the high school's upperclassmen embark on a weeklong out-of-town field trip, but due to dangerous weather conditions that occur overnight while everyone is asleep, the buses must turn around and drop the kids off.  They arrive back in town to find that everyone is gone.  On top of that, the internet is out and their phones only work when they contact each other.  But the worst news of all is that all of the roads and bridges that used to lead out of town are now blocked by dense forest.  Cue the dramatic music.

That premise feels algorithmically generated in the way that alot of Netflix shows are.  Do you like Lost?  Here's another show set in an inescapable place with mysterious properties!  Do you like The Leftovers?  Here's another show where a large portion of the population has disappeared!  Do you like The 100?  Here's another show where #HotTeenz have to fend for themselves!

And at first, it's mostly just good for the thrill that comes from being reminded of those better and more original shows.  It helps, though, that the episodes are also paced pretty well, which is becoming rarer these days, especially on Netflix.  They may be an hour long but they don't feel like it all.  The first few episodes present lots of mysteries and twists that keep things moving and leave you desperate to click that "Next Episode" button, but they're not without their flaws.  You're going to have to sit through some overwrought teen angst, melodramatic love triangles, and cliche dialogue; which can be especially hard to stomach if you have a low tolerance for that kind of stuff.

But even those early episodes where they're figuring things out have that spark that comes from its thoughtful ideas about starting a community from the ground up.  Since these are privileged kids who aren't used to doing things for themselves, they have to stumble around without any framework for how to operate.  What are the rules?  How do we ration food?  How do we conserve water and electricity?  The show even gets into the little factors of society building, like the formation of committees to get various tasks done.  And in doing so, it explores interesting themes about what we owe to each other, what is the true meaning of community, and how humanity functions when it's not bound to long-held social mores.

At first, it seems like that's not the most fruitful avenue for the show to explore.  Here we have this excellent sci-fi mystery setup with so many weird and daring possibilities to take the story, yet the season puts that on the back burner for extended periods to get into the weeds of communal work shifts and city council elections.  While watching, there was a moment where it seemed like what I was most interested in was not what the show was most interested in.  But then it deepens and shows you that the inner-workings of the town of New Ham is the core of the series.  When it focuses on the drama of township, it forces its characters into gripping moral quandaries.  Watching these characters wrestle with tough choices is not only compelling, it's a way to make them more complicated than any expository monologue could.

I noticed something interesting after a few episodes while looking at the credits: almost all of the writing staff consists of women.  And sure enough, by the end of the season, I counted only one other man besides showrunner Christopher Keyser to have a writing credit.  I only mention that because it's something that shines through in the writing, where the female characters are often the most complex and are given all the tiny moments of grace.  In particular, there's Allie (played by Kathryn Newton), who rises as the de facto leader of the town and the one who has the most crises of morality throughout the season.  The Society's portrait of Allie never lands on her being wholly good or bad.  She aims to do the best for everyone but sometimes falters, making rash and morally questionable decisions.  The series goes to some dark, disturbing places but it always feels earned because it comes back to the burden that she has to bear as its grounding force.

The writing staff should also be credited for depicting an abusive relationship that doesn't lean heavily on showing violence against the woman involved.  It shows one initial act and then largely lets the dynamic play out in the emotional and psychological aftermath of the things we don't see (and don't need to due how well the actors convey the things that are shown).  Not only does it avoid becoming lurid, it emerges as one of the most gripping plotlines of the entire season.

The Society reveals those kind of ambitions more and more over the course of its first season.  While it may not quite be at the level of a Deadwood or Orange is the New Black, there's an admirable sprawl to the ensemble, with over two dozen named characters by the end of its initial ten episodes.  Like other shows with such a deep roster, it sometimes runs into trouble managing it all: certain characters completely disappear for stretches of episodes, while others never get as fleshed out as they need to be in order to have their motivations work.  And in trying to constantly ratchet up tension, the writers occasionally opt for some goofy routes -- those who have watched the series will know what I'm talking about if I just shout "THE PIE!!!"  But even with those kinks, it's simply refreshing to watch a show juggle this dense tangle of plot and character and mostly pull it off.

It's hard to tell just how much of an impact The Society has had so far.  There are only a handful of reviews on Metacritic and it doesn't seem to have much buzz on my Twitter timeline.  This is the problem with the Netflix glut of content.  There are so many options that sometimes great shows aren't able to break through.  This feels like the kind of series that could have been a sensation in a different marketplace.  Regardless, I'm happy that it made its way into my field of vision.  Season two can't come soon enough.

2019 Academy Award predictions

Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War

Should Win: First Man

I prefer the subtlety of First Man's effects but I think the Oscar voters will go for the pure excess of Avengers: Infinity War.  But shout out to that anonymous Oscar voter who chose Ready Player One.  That is certainly...a take.

Best Film Editing

BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

Will Win: Vice

Should Win: BlacKkKlansman

I say this often but, the Best Film Editing award often goes to the film with the most editing.  And Vice definitely fits that bill, despite the fact that it doesn't quite match the sophistication and cleverness of the editing in BlacKkKlansman.

Best Costume Design

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

Will Win: The Favourite

Should Win: Black Panther

Many experts seem to be picking Black Panther for this category, and while I think it has the best costuming of the nominees, I can't imagine the Academy betraying their love of period costumes for it.  Especially since the costumes in The Favourite are incredible.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Will Win: Vice

Should Win: Mary Queen of Scots

I don't have much invested in this category.  It seems like the voters will award Vice for making actors look like real people. I like that one scene in the trailer of Mary Queen of Scots where Margot Robbie looks completely bedraggled, so I gave it the edge in the "Should Win" section.

Best Cinematography

Cold War, Lukasz Zal
The Favourite, Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel
Roma, Alfonso Cuaron
A Star Is Born, Matthew Libatique

Will Win: Roma

Should Win: Roma

If Roma wins for its gorgeous cinematography, it could be the first time one person wins this and Best Directing in the same night.  Let's make history happen.

Best Production Design

Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

Will Win: The Favourite

Should Win: Roma

This is pretty stacked category in my eyes.  I like all of the nominees: the Afrofuturism of Black Panther, the stately excess of The Favourite, the NASA set work on First Man, the florid designs of Mary Poppins Returns, and the meticulous recreation of Mexico in Roma.  The last one is the most impressive to me, but this category also tends to have a European period bias.

Best Sound Mixing

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Should Win: Roma

Even if you watch it at home, the mix of Roma is absolutely incredible.  Will that stop the Academy from giving the award to Bohemian Rhapsody anyway?  Probably not.

Best Sound Editing

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma

Will Win: First Man

Should Win: First Man

It might be foolish for me to do a split in the mixing and sound editing categories, but I putting my faith in the power of space sounds.

Best Original Song

"All the Stars," Black Panther

"I'll Fight," RBG

"The Place Where Lost Things Go," Mary Poppins Returns

"Shallow," A Star Is Born

"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings," The Ballads of Buster Scruggs

Will Win: "Shallow," A Star Is Born

Should Win: "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings", The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Listen, it's going to be "Shallow."  This is one of the surest bets of the night.

Best Original Score

Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson

BlacKkKlansman, Terence Blanchard

If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Brittell

Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns, Marc Shaiman

Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

I tear up just thinking about the Beale Street score and it's hard for me to imagine the voters denying such beauty, but don't sleep on BlacKkKlansman or Black Panther here.

Best Animated Short Film

Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

Will Win: Bao

Should Win: N/A

I've only seen Bao so it doesn't feel right to fill in the "Should Win" section.  But I can do the "Will Win" and I don't imagine the Pixar star power not getting recognition.

Best Live Action Short Film

Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin

Will Win: Marguerite

Should Win: N/A

Ah yes, now we get to the scary categories that can obliterate a ballot.  I'm flying blind here -- haven't seen any of these but Marguerite involves old people and sounds like it tugs at the heartstrings.

Best Documentary -- Short Subject

Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.

Will Win: Black Sheep

Should Win: N/A

Another one where I'm flying blind.  Experts seem to be favoring Period. End of Sentence. and I have a feeling I'm going to regret not picking it, but I'm banking on male voters finding menstruation to gross to give the award to it.

Best Documentary -- Feature

Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

Will Win: Free Solo

Should Win: N/A

I have yet to see any of these but I will be getting to Free Solo and Minding the Gap soon.  RBG might take this, but I'll stick with my Free Solo prediction.

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum (Lebanon)

Cold War (Poland)

Never Look Away (Germany)

Roma (Mexico)

Shoplifters (Japan)

Will Win: Roma

Should Win: N/A

I've only seen Roma but desperately want to see Cold War and Shoplifters.  This one seems like an easy prediction too.  After all, none of these other films are nominated for Best Picture as well.  Will that actually end up hurting Roma?  For my ballot's sake, I hope not!

Best Animated Feature Film

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

I like Incredibles 2 quite a bit and want to see Mirai, but Spider-Verse is a sure bet.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel & Ethan Coen

BlacKkKlansman; Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee

Can You Ever Forgive Me?; Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty

If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins

A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Will Win: BlacKkKlansman

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

As much as I would love for Nicole Holofcener to get an Oscar, and as much as I love If Beale Street Could Talk, this feels like it will be where the show gives Spike Lee their apology Oscar for all the past snubs.  Bet on BlacKkKlansman.

Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed, Paul Schrader

Green Book; Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuaron

Vice, Adam McKay

Will Win: The Favourite

Should Win: First Reformed

For writing Taxi Driver and Raging Bull alone, Paul Schrader should win the award.  But First Reformed is also the best script in this category.  Still, I don't think the voters will be feeling in the legacy mood for this one, so The Favourite's (also pretty script) will probably take this.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Will Win: Regina King

Should Win: Rachel Weisz

I'm guessing Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz will end up splitting votes and neither will win, which is a shame because they're my two favorite performances in the category.  But Regina King feels like a lock here.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Will Win: Mahershala Ali

Should Win: Richard E. Grant

Richard E. Grant has had a delightful campaigning tour to match his delightful performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, but will that be enough?  I don't think so.  But if Mahershala Ali and Regina King win, that means half of the acting awards will have gone to black people so hell yeah.

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Will Win: Glenn Close

Should Win: Olivia Colman

I don't think any of these performances are really Oscar worthy, though I haven't seen The Wife.  (Has anybody?)

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Will Win: Rami Malek

Should Win: Christian Bale

I'm not crazy about any of these performances either, but I commend Rami Malek for really falling into the role.

Best Director

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Adam McKay, Vice

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron

Should Win: Spike Lee

A few people think Spike Lee will get this and I would love that, but Cuaron's directing in Roma is too gaudy for the voters to deny.

Best Picture

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

Will Win: Roma

Should Win: Black Panther

I'd rank the nominees from favorite to least favorite like this: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, Roma, Vice, A Star Is Born, Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody.  It feels boring for Black Panther to be my favorite, but I guess I'm just a boring guy.  Really, I'd be okay with anything but Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody winning.