2020 Academy Award predictions

Every year I feel more and more out of touch with the temperature of the Oscar race, so these predictions could be a disaster.  I think it will be a pretty big night for 1917, but I could be wrong.  For the sake of my ballot I'm hoping for a predictable Academy Awards, but for the sake of chaos I want a ton of surprises.

2019 Academy Award predictions

Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War

Should Win: First Man

I prefer the subtlety of First Man's effects but I think the Oscar voters will go for the pure excess of Avengers: Infinity War.  But shout out to that anonymous Oscar voter who chose Ready Player One.  That is certainly...a take.

Best Film Editing

BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

Will Win: Vice

Should Win: BlacKkKlansman

I say this often but, the Best Film Editing award often goes to the film with the most editing.  And Vice definitely fits that bill, despite the fact that it doesn't quite match the sophistication and cleverness of the editing in BlacKkKlansman.

Best Costume Design

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

Will Win: The Favourite

Should Win: Black Panther

Many experts seem to be picking Black Panther for this category, and while I think it has the best costuming of the nominees, I can't imagine the Academy betraying their love of period costumes for it.  Especially since the costumes in The Favourite are incredible.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Will Win: Vice

Should Win: Mary Queen of Scots

I don't have much invested in this category.  It seems like the voters will award Vice for making actors look like real people. I like that one scene in the trailer of Mary Queen of Scots where Margot Robbie looks completely bedraggled, so I gave it the edge in the "Should Win" section.

Best Cinematography

Cold War, Lukasz Zal
The Favourite, Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away, Caleb Deschanel
Roma, Alfonso Cuaron
A Star Is Born, Matthew Libatique

Will Win: Roma

Should Win: Roma

If Roma wins for its gorgeous cinematography, it could be the first time one person wins this and Best Directing in the same night.  Let's make history happen.

Best Production Design

Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

Will Win: The Favourite

Should Win: Roma

This is pretty stacked category in my eyes.  I like all of the nominees: the Afrofuturism of Black Panther, the stately excess of The Favourite, the NASA set work on First Man, the florid designs of Mary Poppins Returns, and the meticulous recreation of Mexico in Roma.  The last one is the most impressive to me, but this category also tends to have a European period bias.

Best Sound Mixing

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Should Win: Roma

Even if you watch it at home, the mix of Roma is absolutely incredible.  Will that stop the Academy from giving the award to Bohemian Rhapsody anyway?  Probably not.

Best Sound Editing

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma

Will Win: First Man

Should Win: First Man

It might be foolish for me to do a split in the mixing and sound editing categories, but I putting my faith in the power of space sounds.

Best Original Song

"All the Stars," Black Panther

"I'll Fight," RBG

"The Place Where Lost Things Go," Mary Poppins Returns

"Shallow," A Star Is Born

"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings," The Ballads of Buster Scruggs

Will Win: "Shallow," A Star Is Born

Should Win: "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings", The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Listen, it's going to be "Shallow."  This is one of the surest bets of the night.

Best Original Score

Black Panther, Ludwig Goransson

BlacKkKlansman, Terence Blanchard

If Beale Street Could Talk, Nicholas Brittell

Isle of Dogs, Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns, Marc Shaiman

Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

I tear up just thinking about the Beale Street score and it's hard for me to imagine the voters denying such beauty, but don't sleep on BlacKkKlansman or Black Panther here.

Best Animated Short Film

Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

Will Win: Bao

Should Win: N/A

I've only seen Bao so it doesn't feel right to fill in the "Should Win" section.  But I can do the "Will Win" and I don't imagine the Pixar star power not getting recognition.

Best Live Action Short Film

Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin

Will Win: Marguerite

Should Win: N/A

Ah yes, now we get to the scary categories that can obliterate a ballot.  I'm flying blind here -- haven't seen any of these but Marguerite involves old people and sounds like it tugs at the heartstrings.

Best Documentary -- Short Subject

Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.

Will Win: Black Sheep

Should Win: N/A

Another one where I'm flying blind.  Experts seem to be favoring Period. End of Sentence. and I have a feeling I'm going to regret not picking it, but I'm banking on male voters finding menstruation to gross to give the award to it.

Best Documentary -- Feature

Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

Will Win: Free Solo

Should Win: N/A

I have yet to see any of these but I will be getting to Free Solo and Minding the Gap soon.  RBG might take this, but I'll stick with my Free Solo prediction.

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum (Lebanon)

Cold War (Poland)

Never Look Away (Germany)

Roma (Mexico)

Shoplifters (Japan)

Will Win: Roma

Should Win: N/A

I've only seen Roma but desperately want to see Cold War and Shoplifters.  This one seems like an easy prediction too.  After all, none of these other films are nominated for Best Picture as well.  Will that actually end up hurting Roma?  For my ballot's sake, I hope not!

Best Animated Feature Film

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Should Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

I like Incredibles 2 quite a bit and want to see Mirai, but Spider-Verse is a sure bet.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel & Ethan Coen

BlacKkKlansman; Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee

Can You Ever Forgive Me?; Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty

If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins

A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Will Win: BlacKkKlansman

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

As much as I would love for Nicole Holofcener to get an Oscar, and as much as I love If Beale Street Could Talk, this feels like it will be where the show gives Spike Lee their apology Oscar for all the past snubs.  Bet on BlacKkKlansman.

Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite, Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed, Paul Schrader

Green Book; Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma, Alfonso Cuaron

Vice, Adam McKay

Will Win: The Favourite

Should Win: First Reformed

For writing Taxi Driver and Raging Bull alone, Paul Schrader should win the award.  But First Reformed is also the best script in this category.  Still, I don't think the voters will be feeling in the legacy mood for this one, so The Favourite's (also pretty script) will probably take this.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice

Marina de Tavira, Roma

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Will Win: Regina King

Should Win: Rachel Weisz

I'm guessing Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz will end up splitting votes and neither will win, which is a shame because they're my two favorite performances in the category.  But Regina King feels like a lock here.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Will Win: Mahershala Ali

Should Win: Richard E. Grant

Richard E. Grant has had a delightful campaigning tour to match his delightful performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, but will that be enough?  I don't think so.  But if Mahershala Ali and Regina King win, that means half of the acting awards will have gone to black people so hell yeah.

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Will Win: Glenn Close

Should Win: Olivia Colman

I don't think any of these performances are really Oscar worthy, though I haven't seen The Wife.  (Has anybody?)

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Will Win: Rami Malek

Should Win: Christian Bale

I'm not crazy about any of these performances either, but I commend Rami Malek for really falling into the role.

Best Director

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Adam McKay, Vice

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron

Should Win: Spike Lee

A few people think Spike Lee will get this and I would love that, but Cuaron's directing in Roma is too gaudy for the voters to deny.

Best Picture

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

Will Win: Roma

Should Win: Black Panther

I'd rank the nominees from favorite to least favorite like this: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, Roma, Vice, A Star Is Born, Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody.  It feels boring for Black Panther to be my favorite, but I guess I'm just a boring guy.  Really, I'd be okay with anything but Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody winning.

2016 Academy Award Predictions

Tonight is the 88th Academy Awards, and what better way to celebrate this bizarre circus by making predictions about who will win?  I usually am pretty good at predicting these categories -- I've gotten at least 19 out of 24 picks correct in the last few years -- but I don't know how to feel about this year's odds.  It seems like for a long time there was no narrative to the award season, so it was hard to tell who the favorites for some of the big categories were, especially Best Picture.  It should make for a fun award show -- well, as fun as these can be -- but a possibly ugly ballot.

2015 Academy Award Predictions

Award shows are ultimately meaningless, but no other one assigns as much prestige to meaninglessness as the Oscars do.  While the Grammys mostly stick to populist affairs and the Emmys remain stuck in the middle of commercially successful and critically acclaimed, the Academy Awards try to give off the impression that they're awarding true "Art."  (Yes, that means we live in a world where Crash is considered "Art.")

Part of that could come from the voting body itself.  Much discussion was had about the demographics of the Academy when the nominations rolled out and they were whiter than a picket fence in St. Petersberg, Missouri.  You see, 94% of the Oscar voters are white, 74% are male, and the average member is 63 years old.  And what are the two things old white dudes love the most?  Taking themselves too seriously and not recognizing people of color.  In all seriousness, I know one of those old white dudes in the Academy, and not only is he a cool guy, he has great taste in films too.  Mostly, though, it seems like the voting body consists of people like this.

For the past few years, I've been making predictions about these awards, because it's fun and the trendy thing to do.  In 2013, I got 21 out of 24 of the categories correct.  Last year, I got 22 out of 24 correct.  Will I get 23 correct this year?  Probably not!  Below I've listed each category, with all of the nominations in said category; along with what I think will win (meaning: my actual prediction), what I want to win, and a brief explanation of both answers.